Over the past 40 years or so, both Europe and the United States have experienced a dramatic rise in immigration (Frey, 2014; Hanson and McIntosh, 2016). These trends have renewed interest in the effects of diversity on both economic growth and social cohesion. Despite the potential benefits from diversity typically predicted by economic analysis (Alesina […]
The increasing globalization of the world economy is a prominent area of public debate. Issues of interest include the following:
The determinants of international trade and multinational activity
The implications of international trade and multinational activity for welfare and the distribution of income
The effects of trade liberalization on firm and aggregate productivity
The organization of firm production activities around the world
National trade policies and the World Trade Organization (WTO)
Globalization gives producers in developing countries the opportunity to serve larger, richer, and more demanding foreign markets. But between these producers and potential consumers in the West sit large buyers, such as Carrefour, H&M, Tesco, and Walmart, with whom business relationships must be negotiated. Due to the large opportunity costs of time and shelf space, […]
With protectionist pressures rising and the multilateral trading system seemingly at risk, it is natural to look to the 1930s for evidence of how protection affects the volume and pattern of trade. This column examines the impact of Britain’s decisive break with a longstanding tradition of free trade in 1931, when the country switched dramatically to a policy of protection, discriminating in favor of the British Empire. The shift explains roughly a quarter of Britain’s trade collapse, and around three quarters of the big increase in the British Empire’s share of British imports during the 1930s.
Trade relations between the United States and China have grown increasingly tense, spurred by concerns that growing imports from China have led to plant closures and job loss in the United States. We find a link between the sharp decline in U.S. manufacturing employment after 2000 and the granting of Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) to China, which eliminated uncertainty about China‘s continued access to the U.S. market. Our research into the reactions of U.S. and Chinese firms to PNTR highlights the sensitivity of firm behavior to policy uncertainty.
The impact of industrial policy on China’s economic growth has been difficult to assess, in part due to the lack of direct evidence on government support measures, which remain secret. This research uncovers hidden subsidies provided to the Chinese shipbuilding industry, which has more than doubled its global market share in recent years. The subsidies decreased shipyard costs in China by 13-20% between 2006 and 2012, policy interventions that have led to substantial misallocation of global production with no significant gains for consumers. Japan, in particular, has lost market share.
This paper studies the aftermath of the MillerCoors joint venture, which merged the operations of SAB Miller and Molson Coors in the United States. The prices of MillerCoors and its biggest rival, Anheuser-Busch Inbev, increased after the joint venture was consummated. These changes are consistent with post-merger coordination between MillerCoors and Anheuser-Busch Inbev.
Global sourcing is on the rise. Recent estimates suggest that intermediate input flows account for about two-thirds of the volume of world trade (Johnson and Noguera, 2012). Boeing’s production of the 787 Dreamliner exemplifies the growing involvement of foreign suppliers in U.S. manufacturing: 70 percent of the Dreamliner’s parts are sourced from 50 suppliers located in 9 countries. Meanwhile, during the last U.S. presidential election, we saw a backlash against international trade. Research, too, documents negative effects of increased trade integration. However, most of this evidence comes from trade in final goods. This paper examines the question: how do we analyze the phenomenon of firms increasingly sourcing intermediate inputs?
Japan’s nineteenth century opening to world commerce after a long period of economic self-sufficiency provides a natural experiment to test the theory of comparative advantage and the gains from trade that it predicts. Drawing on a wide range of historical sources for data on prices, output and trade flows, this research finds that the country benefited from a significant boost to GDP in the years following its forced reintegration with the global economy. The evidence constitutes a strong indication of the potential costs of rejection of today’s open system of world trade.
This paper shows that taxes affect the international location decisions of the best “superstar” inventors. Higher tax rates lead to a significantly lower share of superstar inventors remaining in their home country and a lower share of foreign superstar inventors who move to the country. This may have significant fiscal and innovation costs for a country that should be taken into account when setting tax policy.
Competitive devaluations are again becoming a popular macroeconomic policy. For example, a competitive devaluation was one of the three pillars of Abenomics, the economic policy of Shinzo Abe’s administration to fight secular stagnation in Japan. It was also discussed as a potential tool for debt-ridden southern European countries, had they been able to abandon the euro.
But while Japan reduced the value of the yen by 50 percent relative to the US dollar between 2012 and 2015, the impact on trade and employment was underwhelming. The Economist derided the policy as an “uncompetitive devaluation.”